by Andrej Novak, European Cosmopolitan
In the fall of 2014, I published the first article worldwide that spelled out a potential peacekeeping force in Ukraine with „What’s Peace in the Donbas Worth to Us?“. In the article, I argued that at least 50,000 peacekeepers with a robust mandate would be needed.
Currently, there is a lot of talk about a negotiated end to the war in Ukraine and the necessity to back such a settlement up with tangible security guarantees, which might include a major peacekeeping mission.
Given the length of the contact line between Ukraine and the Russian forces, experts put the number of peacekeepers to secure it at around 200,000 or more.
It would be very difficult for Europe to put together such as force with current troop levels and funding. But taking into account significantly increase defence spending, it could get there and build up the numbers in the course of 2-3 years.
This policy brief sets out to portray a model of how troop contributions from each country could be calculated, so that a force of this size becomes more realistically achievable, given the political will and good, swiftly implemented planning.
To determine how many troops each European NATO country would need to contribute to form a total force of 200,000 or 250,000 soldiers, we assume that all countries contribute the same percentage of their total active army (ground forces only). The calculation follows these steps:
Step 1: Identify Active Army Personnel for Each Country
The following table lists the estimated active army personnel for European NATO countries:
| Country | Active Army Personnel |
| Albania | 8,500 |
| Belgium | 25,000 |
| Bulgaria | 30,000 |
| Croatia | 15,000 |
| Czech Republic | 25,000 |
| Denmark | 15,000 |
| Estonia | 6,500 |
| France | 118,000 |
| Germany | 62,000 |
| Greece | 100,000 |
| Hungary | 23,000 |
| Italy | 99,000 |
| Latvia | 5,000 |
| Lithuania | 10,000 |
| Luxembourg | 1,000 |
| Netherlands | 35,000 |
| North Macedonia | 8,000 |
| Norway | 20,000 |
| Poland | 120,000 |
| Portugal | 30,000 |
| Romania | 70,000 |
| Slovakia | 17,000 |
| Slovenia | 7,000 |
| Spain | 75,000 |
| Turkey | 260,200 |
| United Kingdom | 82,040 |
| Total | 1,271,240 |
Step 2: Determine the Contribution Formula
Each country’s contribution is proportional to its total active army strength. The formula to determine the number of troops a country must contribute is:
Where:
- = Number of troops the country contributes
- = Active army personnel of the country
- = Total active army personnel of all European NATO countries
- = Total required force (200,000 or 250,000)
Step 3: Calculate Contributions for a 200,000 Troop Force
Using the above formula, each country’s contribution is calculated as follows:
| Country | Contribution to 200,000 Troops |
| Albania | 1,338 |
| Belgium | 3,933 |
| Bulgaria | 4,715 |
| Croatia | 2,358 |
| Czech Republic | 3,933 |
| Denmark | 2,358 |
| Estonia | 1,021 |
| France | 18,566 |
| Germany | 9,755 |
| Greece | 15,726 |
| Hungary | 3,617 |
| Italy | 15,570 |
| Latvia | 787 |
| Lithuania | 1,574 |
| Luxembourg | 157 |
| Netherlands | 5,505 |
| North Macedonia | 1,259 |
| Norway | 3,144 |
| Poland | 18,872 |
| Portugal | 4,715 |
| Romania | 11,011 |
| Slovakia | 2,674 |
| Slovenia | 1,101 |
| Spain | 11,800 |
| Turkey | 40,920 |
| United Kingdom | 12,902 |
Step 4: Calculate Contributions for a 250,000 Troop Force
For a larger force of 250,000 troops:
| Country | Contribution to 250,000 Troops |
| Albania | 1,673 |
| Belgium | 4,916 |
| Bulgaria | 5,894 |
| Croatia | 2,948 |
| Czech Republic | 4,916 |
| Denmark | 2,948 |
| Estonia | 1,276 |
| France | 23,208 |
| Germany | 12,194 |
| Greece | 19,658 |
| Hungary | 4,521 |
| Italy | 19,463 |
| Latvia | 984 |
| Lithuania | 1,968 |
| Luxembourg | 196 |
| Netherlands | 6,881 |
| North Macedonia | 1,574 |
| Norway | 3,930 |
| Poland | 23,590 |
| Portugal | 5,894 |
| Romania | 13,764 |
| Slovakia | 3,343 |
| Slovenia | 1,377 |
| Spain | 14,750 |
| Turkey | 51,150 |
| United Kingdom | 16,128 |
Conclusion
These calculations assume that each country contributes the same percentage of its army. Actual troop contributions would depend on political and strategic considerations. The proportional method ensures fairness based on military capacity. The numbers also could decrease significantly if other countries such as the US, Canada, Ireland, Austria and/or Asian, African countries friendly to Ukraine were to contribute troops to a Peacekeeping Mission for Ukraine.The more countries contribute and are present in each sector of the contact line, the better the deterrence would be.
Of course, the troop presence could be a lot smaller if Ukraine, or at least the parts under Ukrainian government control, became a member of NATO or an equivalent mutual defence organisation.